Shipping's broken again. And the reason sounds depressingly familiar.

Fresh attacks on commercial vessels near the Bab el-Mandeb strait this week have pushed more carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. That adds 10 to 14 days to the average Asia-Europe trip. It's also pushed spot rates on major routes up 22% in a fortnight, per Drewry's World Container Index.

For any business that runs on just-in-time inventory, this is the second shipping shock in 18 months. Container availability on Shanghai-Rotterdam has tightened sharply, and some European retailers are already warning about summer stock gaps.

The big carriers aren't waiting around. Maersk told major clients on Monday it wouldn't go back to Red Sea routes until security was "credible and sustained". MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd — same stance. Translation? Suez transits have dropped to less than 30% of pre-crisis levels.

The spillovers are showing up in unexpected places. Egypt, which earns roughly $10 billion a year from Suez fees, has watched revenues crater. Sri Lankan and South Indian ports are getting a small trans-shipment boost. And oil tanker insurance premiums in the region? Highest since the 1980s.

Bottom line: don't expect a quick fix. Shipping execs I've spoken to are pricing in disruption through at least Q3. Some are signing long-term contracts that bake the Cape routing in as a baseline. For consumers, that means slightly higher prices on electronics, apparel, and auto parts — right around the time holiday shopping starts. Fun.